On this week’s Education Gadfly Show podcast, Dr. Katie Jenner, the Indiana secretary of education, joins Mike and David to discuss a proposed, alternative high school diploma in the Hoosier state. Then, on the Research Minute, Amber examines a new study investigating early indicators for college readiness.
Recommended content:
“Indiana’s new diplomas emphasize flexibility for older students, but some requirements are controversial” —Chalkbeat
“We all agree that college isn’t for everyone. We should start acting like it.” —Michael Petrilli, Fordham Institute
Brian Holzman and Horace Duffy, “Empowering educational leaders: On-track indicators for college enrollment,” Annenberg Institute at Brown University (May 2024).
Feedback Welcome: Have ideas for improving our podcast? Send them to Daniel Buck at dbuck@fordhaminstitute.org.
This transcript was created using AI software.
Michael Petrilli:
Welcome to the Education Gadfly Show. I'm your host, Mike Petrilli, the Thomas B. Fordham Institute. Today, Indiana Secretary of Education Katie Jenner joins us to discuss a proposed alternative high school diploma in the Hoosier State. Then on the research minute, Amber reports on a new study investigating early indicators for college readiness. All this on the Education Gadfly show.
This notion that we should keep sending kids to college even if they're clearly terrible at school. Hello, this is your host, Mike Petrilli of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute here at the Education Gadfly Show and online at fordhaminstitute.org. And now please welcome our special guest for this week, Katie Jenner. Katie, welcome to the show.
Katie Jenner:
Thank you. It's great to be with you.
Michael Petrilli:
Yeah. Dr. Jenner is Indiana's Secretary of Education and we're so glad to have her here. We're going to be talking about a big proposal that is making the rounds of the Hoosier State right now around a new approach to high school graduation requirements and the high school diploma, an issue near and dear to my heart. But first, let's welcome my co-host, David Griffith. Yeah, great to see you, David. And I should say Katie, always great to have a fellow mid-Westerner on the show. If I still count, I've lived in DC now for over 25 years, but I grew up in St. Louis, went to Michigan. Go blue.
Katie Jenner:
We'll still count you for a little bit longer.
Michael Petrilli:
I appreciate that. Alright, well hey, let's talk about high school diplomas on ed reform update. Okay. Katie, so many of us have seen this in the news. There is a proposal on the table around high school graduation requirements in Indiana. Can you quickly tell us what it's all about?
Katie Jenner:
Absolutely. At a high level end of March, we presented at our state Board of Education a proposal. We believe wholeheartedly in Indiana that we have to make sure the four years of high school is as valuable as possible for students. And we also have to acknowledge where we are today that we can absolutely do better to make sure our students have more seamless paths ahead, regardless if they're interested in going straight into employment enrollment or serving our country by enlisting. And so we presented a proposal that includes an Indiana GPS diploma, which is more like our current Core 40. It's more flexible than that. But our core 40 in Indiana is a typical diploma that you would see probably around our country, and then a diploma plus an Indiana GPS Diploma Plus, which includes work-based learning opportunities and credentials of value, the currency for the students, whether again, it's currency straight into enrollment or employment, but that credential of value is stackable at the higher education level.
So the other thing I would add that I think would be important to know is in our country for so long, if you talk to most Americans, for the most part, we've all had the same 30 to 40 classes and yet we're all on very unique paths ahead. We really worked as a state to think through what do we want to make sure all Indiana High school students have prior to graduation? And that led us to building our graduation profile, which yes, it includes academic mastery, your reading, your stem, it includes college and career readiness, the credentials that I mentioned, the educational attainment and the experiences like work-based learning. And then it includes skills, communication and collaboration, work ethic, digital financial and civic literacy. So if those are so important to our state, then rather than just saying students should take all of these courses, why don't we make sure that our North Star is making sure all students have those specific characteristics, the knowledge and the skills before graduation. So that is the base of what we've built out for our foundation, and it includes courses and it includes competencies that we're asking our students to consider, which opens up that junior and senior year for personalized flexibility for that child, which we believe is long overdue.
Michael Petrilli:
So this is where I think it gets really interesting. So you've got this base freshman and sophomore years, but then junior and senior year, as you say, it can be much more personalized, including for the GPS diploma plus a very big focus on career preparation as I understand it, including things like apprenticeships. Now I've been arguing for a long time now that's exactly what we need. Maryland has a proposal to move in this direction as well, part of their Kerwin commission. The idea is that the reality in most places in America is that almost everybody is really doing a college prep curriculum and maybe some kids are taking a few CTE classes on the side, or maybe they get to senior year and they spend every morning or every afternoon at the regional career tech center. But that's not a lot of time compared to what we see overseas.
Certainly in central Europe where you've got people that are spending basically all of their junior and senior years at a workplace doing workplace learning. I like that model a lot. But as you know, this makes a lot of people nervous because it feels like making kids choose college or career. And of course there's always that equity worry that back in the bad old days of the bad old vo-tech, we used to tell some kids, Hey, you're not college material. You should go work with your hands. And too often those decisions were based on the color of their skin or being on the wrong side of the track. So what do you say to those concerns?
Katie Jenner:
You're right in that for so long, many of our courses have been, I would say not even college focused. It's been four year college focused. And we know, again, I mentioned earlier, educational attainment and stackable credentials are in many respects as important depending on what profession you're going into. And so with the Indiana GPS Diploma Plus, which it is absolutely more transformational, the students would have that ninth and 10th grade foundation and then 11th and 12th grade, the work-based learning component, which we believe is very, very important to hone the skill development. And we know that from research we can do so much in the four walls of a classroom, but getting students out there practicing this skill development is key. I'll tell you some criticism that I've taken that we're trying to navigate is if you look at our work-based learning continuum, you see that level two is 75 hours.
Level three is a pre-apprenticeship at 650 hours. And level four is an apprenticeship, to your point, Mike, at 2000 hours. And that is to note, we have schools on varying paths right now in Indiana. Some are already offering apprenticeships and they're moving, some are offering some work-based learning, but we have some that are just beginning. So what we'll likely see with this rule is the state board of education will pass that, and then our general assembly will have a discussion about the funding incentive mechanisms that will fund that at different levels. And then in that third component, which to your point is the courses, if you look at the third component of the Indiana GPS, it includes credentials of value. Many of those credentials of value are CTE credentials that are stackable, whether it's technical certificates, which is in Indiana, like one year of college in an industry focused area or associate degree.
But to your point about equity right now, we have students earning that at different spots of our state and our trajectory is going up. But presently, we have to overcome the access challenge to make sure all children have access to whether it's the CTE path or the other option in that component. Three is the Indiana College core, which is specific to Indiana, but it requires a 30 credit package to transfer to any college or university in our state to make it more affordable, et cetera. So a lot of options for personalization and not just the cookie cutter high school diploma,
Michael Petrilli:
But Superintendent Jenner isn't the worry that if you let somebody, let's
Katie Jenner:
Be less
Michael Petrilli:
Formal. So Katie, if we let, let's say, I guess we're talking about sophomores as they make decisions for junior year, if we let them opt out of the college prep track and into something that's very much CTE focused, and so therefore they no longer take some of those traditional college prep courses, isn't the worry that some of those kids could have actually gone to a four year college and done quite well, but for whatever reason, maybe because first in their generation or they got bad advice or bias that somebody encouraged them to go to this other track. And look, the college wage premium is still real. I mean, if you can graduate from a four year college, you're almost always better off doing that. So how do we make sure at least that either those kids are not pushed into the wrong track or given the most information possible?
Katie Jenner:
And with all due respect, Mike, I think you're thinking about CTE with the wrong lens because CTE, if you look at the paths in Indiana, the next level programs of study, we worked with our industry leaders to back map what is needed. And that goes through a college credential. A college credential could be from Ivy Tech Community College, but that's still educational attainment and could stack into something at Ball State University or Purdue University. So I think that's, and maybe the lens that you're looking at it is maybe how our country does right now, we have a lot of CTE courses that I think we need to raise our expectations a bit at the high school level on that students can earn these credentials of value while there. So I mean, we see it again in looking at our data, is the upward trajectory happening? And now let's make that accessible to all of our students, noting that and acknowledging that Indiana is very rural. And so some of our greatest challenges are actually going to be in the rural communities because our urban communities may be near businesses who have training centers or the community college system that has a training center. So our rural communities is where that's really having to get very, very creative.
Michael Petrilli:
David.
David Griffith:
Yeah, look, let me just start by saying that I think I'm broadly in favor of the direction that this is headed, right? I agree that not everyone needs a four year degree. And I agree that broadly speaking, we want to do more, I think career experiences at the high school level because that it is just good for kids at this age to start getting a feel for it, and it connects them to the workplace and it connects them. I think I do want to just talk a little bit about the sticking points because I do feel like there's always an opportunity cost with anything. And so when you're making things more flexible, the other way of saying that is that there are fewer general ed requirements and that you're saying these are things that all kids don't have to take. And so it's right on the line for me. So correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that under the news system, world history will not be required at the high school level. Is that accurate?
Katie Jenner:
That is accurate in the present rule one draft. We'll have a second rule draft in July, David, so stay tuned, but in the present draft,
David Griffith:
Right? Well, and I mean at some point you have to get super specific. So I mean, that's just an example, right? You're talking about social studies, which is something that's near and dear to my heart. And I guess I would personally have to be convinced that ninth graders are entering high school with a clear firm grasp of World War ii, the Holocaust, the rise of communism. I mean, it's not just about college. It's also about our collective investment in a next generation that basically knows what the world is about. And so I think that's a little bit of a sticking point for me.
Katie Jenner:
By the way, David, we've heard that concern and that's absolutely on our radar to consider for that second draft.
David Griffith:
Okay, so that's good to hear. I feel less strongly about this other one. I mean, again, correct me if I'm wrong, I know it's a draft. So as I understand it, the only real requirement at this point for math is specific requirement is algebra one, but then there are two more essentially years of math. Can you just say a little bit more about, I
Katie Jenner:
Would love to say more about that. I mean, presently, if you look at the math pathways, and I'll just use Indiana as an example, but it's our whole country calculus is that end goal. And that was really established because of the space race. And so what you see with Algebra one being as a key requirement is because presently working on building out a data science pathway, we're working with some of our top institutions to build that out in preparation for the AI world and the advanced technology world. And so we want to make sure we have flexibility there for what that pathway might bring. Math is absolutely essential to make sure our students have, but again, that's why that flexibility is there, is to be mindful of what that could look like.
David Griffith:
Well,
Michael Petrilli:
Unfortunately, Katie, that is all the time that we have for this week. But we will continue to watch the story as it plays out, excited to see if the policy evolves and gets into place. And we might have an example in America where we've really moved away from the college for all mindset, which the Indiana Core 40 was very much a big part of. I remember that being a milestone. I think coming up with this GPS plus approach especially feels like a big shift, not just for the Hoosier state but nationally. So thanks for letting us know about it. Again, Dr. Katie Jenner, the Secretary of Education in Indiana. Hope you come back sometime soon.
Katie Jenner:
Ready? Anytime. Let me know. Thank you.
Michael Petrilli:
Alright, thanks. Now it's time for everyone's favorite Amber's research minute. Amber, welcome back to the show.
Amber Northern:
Thanks, Mike.
Michael Petrilli:
Hope you had a nice Memorial Day weekend.
Amber Northern:
I did, I did. I did. Thank you. It was beautiful weather and spent a lot of time outside.
Michael Petrilli:
Very good. I spent the weekend in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Amber Northern:
Nice.
Michael Petrilli:
Down in Roanoke. Beautiful area.
Amber Northern:
Yeah, it's a nice area.
Michael Petrilli:
Yeah, some great outdoor activities around there. And I dunno if that's still considered the Shenandoah Valley, but it's close and it's beautiful. Yes, it's alright. What you got for us this week,
Amber Northern:
We're going to be looking at a new study. I think you're going to like this, Mike. It's going to test out multiple measures of whether a student is on track for college enrollment. It doesn't say whether the students, how they do once they get there, it just says whether they're more or less likely to enroll in college based on a bunch of different indicators that they test out. So the basic premise is we could use a better way to identify which students should be targeted for intervention, assuming that we want kids to go to college, which we do for the most part, they test three indicators that may predict college enrollment and non enrollment as well as by subgroup. The college indicators are measured in grade seven, nine, and 11, and then they test each with and without these various control variables. They use data from Houston as their test case.
Houston is the ninth largest school district. They also have data from the national student clearinghouse, obviously, to measure those. College enrollment outcomes analysis focuses on students who were in seventh grade during the 2007, eight and eight nine school years. They tracked them through fall of 2013 and 2014, which would have been the first year they would've attended college if they graduated high school on time and matriculated immediately. So the outcome, it was just binary. It measured whether a student enrolled in a college or university at any level. So they're looking at two and four. I think they're also looking at technical colleges because that said, any colleges and it had an other category, the students who did not graduate with their class were coded as not enrolled. And here are the three measures. One, they use that Chicago consortium measure that's kind of popular whether students are on track.
It's mainly on track to graduate high school measure where you had to have no more than two semester FS in any subject. No more than one F in a core subject. And again, this was really designed to address high school dropout, but the analysts wanted to see whether that a high school dropout indicator could also identify students who were at risk of not attending college. Second measure is on track college enrollment. They call it the HERC HERC measure. And this one was a little bit more broad, that students had to maintain attendance rate of at least 90% or above. They had to have an average grade of 80% or a BB minus average, and they had to take and pass at least one semester long advanced course. And in their third measure was the Texas State accountability measure. This one is just test scores. They're looking at 11th grade students.
They had to earn ELA and math scores on the Texas State assessment tax of at or above 2200, which I guess is, I don't know. They don't say that's proficiency, but I assumed at some kind of proficient measure in Texas. And then again, they look at all three measures at grade 7, 9, 11. So they could compare the effectiveness of them over time. And a prediction was considered correct if the student's likelihood of college enrollment was greater than or equal to 50% and they eventually enrolled, or a student's likelihood of college enrollment was less than 50% and they did not enroll key results. All three indicators were positively associated with college enrollment in seventh grade in particular that the state indicator and the more expansive one, the herc that had the attendance performed better than the Chicago indicator. They say, well, the Chicago indicator was originally designed to predict high school graduation, so maybe it's a little more lenient to, so maybe it wasn't supposed to be as good as these other two.
The Chicago indicator was inaccurate at predicting non enrollment such that it incorrectly assumed that 79% of non enrollees would attend college. So in other words, it suggested a student would enroll in college when they actually would not. All the indicators were more precise and predictive when the controls were added and the fixed effects. And then they looked at the other grades, and I'll speed it up nine and 11. Those patterns were similar to the ones they saw in grade seven. The HERC indicator, which is the one again with attendance and some other things had higher rates of correct negative predictions. The state test indicator had lower rates, perhaps because low test scores during high school may be less influential on college enrollment than the absenteeism and the poor grades and the failing to take advanced courses measure. And then finally, the overall prediction rates were slightly higher for female, white, Asian, and non-poor students than for black male, Hispanic and economically disadvantaged students. So again, they assumed that advantaged kids who did not meet the indicators would not go to college. However, many of those more advantaged kids did end up in college. And finally they found that the students were at greater risk of falling off track in ninth grade versus the other grades that they examined. That's a lot. But again, trying to figure out what's going to predict a kid's enrollment is basically what we learned here.
Michael Petrilli:
Yeah. Well, I feel like it's a blast from the past, not only because the data are a little bit old, but it's back from a time when we were very much in the college for all mindset. I mean, what's going through my head is not just who ends up going to college, but who should have gone to college
Amber Northern:
And who succeeds, right? Yeah.
Michael Petrilli:
Yeah. I mean, I wonder if these data sets will allow us eventually to see what happened with college completion. In other words, which kids went to college and then dropped out. And I would think we would be able to predict that pretty well because those were probably the kids who were not well prepared to succeed in college. I mean, this idea that you can have low test scores and go anyways. I mean, yeah, college will take you no matter what. I don't know. That's where I'm at, Amber, no offense. But I don't love the outcome being college enrollment.
Amber Northern:
But the other piece, the one that measured these other things other than test scores, I mean, I thought that was a good addition to it.
Michael Petrilli:
I mean, it's just, gosh, especially there's news out this week about how people who didn't go to college over the last 10 years are doing better than they used to in the economy. Something's happening out there in the economy, at least in the short term. I don't know if it's minimum wages going up or just the labor shortage that people are making more money even without a degree than they used to. And so this notion that we should keep sending kids to college, even if they're clearly terrible at school, they don't show up. They're poor attendance, poor test scores, they failed courses. I mean, why are we telling those young people to go to college? That seems like terrible advice. David, you're laughing. What?
David Griffith:
No, you're not going to get a lot of pushback from me, Mike. I mean, as you were talking, I was wondering what are we even picking up on here when we're talking about a binary measure of college enrollment? I mean, admittedly, it's before this broad critique of higher ed that we're living through, but still, it's like, what is that actually picking up on? Is it just picking up on aspirations? Is it just picking up on, I'll call them career aspirations that are correlated with class? What is it exactly that we think college enrollment with zero measure of what the quality of the college is,
Amber Northern:
Right. Or how they do when they get there. Yeah.
David Griffith:
Right. What is that actually capturing to me?
Amber Northern:
Right. Well, we don't know whether they're dropping out. We just know that they enrolled immediately or didn't after they graduated. So it's a narrow view of what we're measuring. I agree.
Michael Petrilli:
And look, I like the idea of these predictive measures. To be clear, I mean, to the folks doing these studies, I mean, I think it could be very useful. I mean, people have found that those ninth grade on-track measures are very useful because they help schools identify the kids who need intervention. And with the right intervention, you can get kids back on track. So I mean, that's all good. And I also like the idea of some kind of predictive model that can give young people and their families good advice on whether they should go to college or what kind of college. So I mean, I think there's more good soil to be tilled here. But yeah, college enrollment alone, it's the same problem. Have we have this debate with some of the school choice studies where some of the private school choice advocates point to college enrollment as an outcome where private school choice programs look good. And I'm like, well, again, I don't know what to make of that. Right? I mean, show me whether the kids graduate or not. And then I'll be more convinced.
David Griffith:
The ninth grade bit always rings true to me based on my extremely limited time as a teacher. It's like that last moment when it really feels a little path dependent. And it feels like it could go either way. And like you said, if we could come up with the right intervention, which is an enormous if, right? It feels like there is a group of kids that if we could get them to show up to school and take school seriously and basically believe in themselves. Honestly, that was my personal experience, was that there were some kids, not all kids, some kids to be honest, which just did not have the academic chops for a sort of pre-college track. But there was a class of kids that theoretically did that. If you could get them to believe in their ability to do this and really invest in themselves, then they could have made it. But what's so tricky is it's one thing to say, well, kids with better attendance are more likely to enroll in college. That's an obvious, right? What's not clear is how do we get better attendance and really how do we change the thing that makes them not want to attend in the first place?
Amber Northern:
And we've seen some success, David, with these ninth grade academies and cohorts. I think a lot of us have realized that ninth grade is at transition year, that you've got to put some extra resources and some supports in those kids with that transition year. I mean, absolutely.
David Griffith:
Yeah, we had that too. I guess it just didn't feel like enough, honestly. It just seemed like we really needed, I mean, I always think about this reflecting on my own experience. You go from being with sixth graders to be with 12th grade boys essentially overnight. And that's frankly terrifying if you're a young man. And I don't know, maybe we need another class category of school for the ninth and 10th graders. I don't know what it is, but I don't think we're doing enough early in high school.
Amber Northern:
The small fish and big pond problem. Yes.
Michael Petrilli:
Well, we will need to leave it there. Thank you, Amber. Interesting stuff. But that is all the time we've got for this week. And so until next week,
David Griffith:
I'm David Griffith.
Michael Petrilli:
And I'm Mike Petri of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute signing off.
#922: Redesigning high school diplomas, with Dr. Katie Jenner